Germany's Skills Shortage Myth in 20 Facts

The official thesis of a shortage

The skills gap has fallen for three years

The German Economic Institute (IW) puts Germany's skills gap in 2025 at 369,516 positions that cannot be filled, the third decline in a row. A real gap exists, but it is shrinking, which sits oddly with talk of an intensifying emergency.¹

Over a million open positions for the qualified

On average in 2025, around 1.11 million positions for qualified workers were open, down 10.7 percent from 2023. The number stays high, but the trend points down, in step with the weakening economy.²

Bottlenecks in one occupation in seven

Germany's Federal Employment Agency classes 163 of around 1,200 occupations as bottleneck occupations, 20 fewer than the year before. The affected fields are mainly nursing, health, construction and the trades, not the whole labour market. The shortage is concentrated, not universal.³

Firms stay worried long-term

Despite the easing, the DIHK reports that 83 percent of firms expect negative effects from labour and skills shortages in future. This is the strongest argument for the shortage thesis: even those who can hire now fear the coming years.⁴

The demographic time bomb

13.4 million retire by 2039

The hardest evidence for the shortage thesis is demographic: by 2039, 13.4 million workers reach retirement age, nearly a third of everyone employed today. This gap is real and cannot be closed quickly.⁵

Nursing gets tight

The bottleneck is clearest in care: Germany's statistics office expects a shortfall of 280,000 to 690,000 nursing staff by 2049, depending on the scenario. Here the skills shortage is no myth, but a foreseeable care gap.⁶

Without immigration the workforce shrinks

The labour-market institute IAB projects the labour-force potential falling by over seven million by 2035 without net immigration; only about 400,000 newcomers a year would keep it stable. The long-term scarcity is demographic, independent of the day-to-day cycle.⁷

The counter-evidence

Over three million unemployed

At the same time the labour market is tipping: in January 2026, 3.085 million people were unemployed, a rate of 6.6 percent, the highest January reading in over a decade. A nationwide skills shortage and three million unemployed are hard to square.⁸

Unemployment is trending up

The 2025 annual average was 2.948 million unemployed, 161,000 more than the year before. The trend has pointed up for two years, not down, as you would expect with an intensifying shortage.⁹

Job postings at a 25-year low

The demand side is even clearer: in 2025 firms reported only 1.461 million new vacancies to the agency, the lowest in 25 years. Those desperate to hire post more vacancies, not fewer.¹⁰

The IAB counts fewer openings too

The IAB job-vacancy survey confirms it: in the fourth quarter of 2025, open positions were about 10 percent below the year-earlier quarter. Labour demand is cooling broadly, across sectors.¹¹

Only one firm in five still complains

In the ifo survey, only 22.7 percent of firms reported a skills shortage in January 2026, the lowest in five years. The ifo itself stresses that the drop comes from the weak economy, not from positions being filled.¹²

Companies are cutting jobs

The ifo employment barometer fell in April 2026 to 91.3 points, its lowest since May 2020. On balance, firms are planning to cut staff, not add it, the exact opposite of an acute personnel emergency.¹³

Where jobs are being cut

Industry sheds tens of thousands

In 2025, German industry cut around 124,000 jobs, nearly double the 2024 figure, according to EY. Across the breadth of industry there is no shortage, but a surplus of workers being freed up.¹⁴

The car industry at a low

The key auto sector is hit especially hard: at the end of the third quarter of 2025, it employed 48,700 fewer people than a year earlier, the lowest level since 2011. Well-trained specialists are being released here, not sought.¹⁵

Skills shortage slips down the risk ranking

In the DIHK survey, the skills shortage has slipped: at the start of 2026, only 40 percent of firms named it a business risk, down from 44 percent, now behind labour costs, domestic demand and energy prices. Other worries weigh more heavily on companies.¹⁶

The majority can fill posts

Fittingly, only 36 percent of firms report hiring difficulties, seven points fewer than a year earlier. A majority of companies currently have no acute trouble filling open positions.¹⁷

Young people find work harder too

Even among the young the turn shows: youth unemployment rose 8 percent in 2025 to around 273,000 people under 25. In a genuine labour emergency, young applicants in particular would be snapped up.¹⁸

Myth or reality?

The truth is in the detail

Our read: the skills shortage is neither pure myth nor nationwide reality, but selective. In nursing, health and parts of the trades the gap is real and demographically locked in. In industry, administration and many office jobs there is long no scarcity. The ifo sums it up: the current easing comes from the weak economy.¹⁹

Our read: the cycle only seems to help

In our view the relief is deceptive. The insolvency wave is freeing up workers en masse, Germany Insolvencies counts 14,675 opened corporate insolvencies by May 2026 alone. Once the economy turns, demographics will meet a shrunken labour market, and the shortage will return with force.²⁰